Econometrics fuses together math and basic economics to examine how certain variables might affect an economic relationship. Much of this work is theoretical, using different possible scenarios plugged into formulas. For instance, governments and banks often use applied economics methods like this to see how shifts in interest rates or wages might affect the economy’s health. People studying this statistical technique are usually in their third or fourth year of economic study.
All things considered, econometrics is deeply embedded in every aspect of applied economics today, almost without exception. Rather than running regressions and looking at the results to form an opinion, today’s top market analysts are asked to run a series of hypothetical tests to determine the future, both based on past behavior and worst-case-scenario results as well. While studying this technique at universities, economic students will not only delve into economics books, but they will also have much hands-on experience to understand the implementation of these lofty concepts. Computers have also made the job of an economist much easier to ensure more precise tabulations.
One problem with econometrics is that, occasionally, the integrity of the results is called into question, since it is so easy to manipulate statistics to achieve a desired conclusion. As a result, most economists will submit their work to multiple peer reviews before publishing their findings to improve the validity of the studies. Despite its critics, this study of applied economics is far more useful in predictions than random guesses. Whether it pertains to stock markets or budget planning, this forecasting method is a valuable tool.
You don’t need a degree in economics to see that we’re in a serious economic recession. The Meriam-Webster Dictionary defines a recession as “a general slowdown in economic activity.” Similarly, the Encarta World Dictionary says a recession occurs when there is a “contraction in the business cycle” of buying and production. Truly hindsight is 20/20, as we can now see how precariously the financial fate of our nation was throughout the nineties and new millennium, placing all our stock on a housing and construction gamble. Yet many Americans are still asking, “How did we get here?” And more importantly, “Why did no one see this coming?”
According to “macro economics” professors Antonio Fatas and Ilian Mihov at the INSEAD International Business School, there were some “classic macroeconomic imbalances that predicted the crisis.” They argue the best way to avoid an economic recession is to have a stable pattern of consumption that matches national GDP, as we see in countries like Germany and France. In the US, the GDP went up 1% in the first quarter of 2008, which is extremely low, and then retracted 0.5% in the third quarter, which is the worst decline since 2001. When advanced economies build insurmountable deficits and their Gross Domestic Products decline, you can be rest assured a recession is on its way.
We’ve seen a combination of economic theories come together to try digging out of this economic recession. So far, the government has spent money on propping up our financial institutions that were “too big to fail,” invested in infrastructure and energy, reduced interest rates, cut taxes and put money back into consumers’ pockets to give the economy a jolt. We turn now to lessons in economics to learn what we can do to prevent further collapse and get back on-track and restore our status as a global economics super power.
There are different economics books and schools of thought regarding how to dig out of an economic recession. Mainstream followers of basic economics say we must simply create more consumer demand and stimulate spending again, which has been the policy carried by the Bush and Obama administrations so far. Monetary experts favor decreasing interest rates, discounting federal bonds and opening up loan access to more people and small businesses. Keynesian economists, on the other hand, prefer to raise interest rates, tighten overall government spending but increase investments in infrastructure, while also encouraging businesses to decrease wages (faster than the prices are falling). One could argue that the current stimulus packages have also made use of these theories. Supply-side economists may advocate tax cuts to promote business investments, while laissez-faire minded economists say the situation will work itself out naturally, without government interference.
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